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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the award. However, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest upset.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent underperformers rising in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still