The average number of daily murders monthly in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to fresh government statistics. But, public safety specialists have advised that homicide data could fail to point to enhanced countrywide security.
Significant Drop in Per-Day Averages
Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.
“The outcome in killings that we’ve had in these months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum said, explaining that in November the smallest amount of murders were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.
Historical Background and Official Strategy
Intense drug cartel infighting, combined with the administration's highly military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.
That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her public safety approach for an ostensibly steeper reduction in killings in the current year.
At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to continue working at it every day.”
The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:
- Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
- Improving intelligence and investigation efforts.
- Greater coordination between various departments.
Analyst Caution and Data Concerns
Nevertheless, public safety researchers warned that focusing solely on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of pacification was misleading. This is notably true considering the increase in different crimes such as abductions.
“That would be excellent information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”
As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe last year. However, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.
“Statistics on murders is not valid for gauging the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to correctly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through disappearances.”
Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of everyday killings was additionally an issue because it may obscure periods when there were especially high levels of killings.
“Relying on the per-day average makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he stated.
Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress
An area where the government can cite the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for major offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.
“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” said Vargas.
Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration
Yet despite these efforts, Mexico is still plagued by high violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the last year.
Weeks after, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the nation to express their frustration at graft and drug violence.
“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to create a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, socially it’s highly problematic,” the analyst said.
