Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
